Fed goes for 50bps and China gives you money to buy domestic stonks… So what’s the trade a week later? Rates trades and hedges set up from the Fed’s first (Big-Mac) cut. In line with market expectations but against economist consensus (yours-truly included), the Fed decided to skip the hors-d’œuvre and go for the plat […]
Fed and China go big or go home Read More »
I have been to many stakings- you have to know where to stand! You know, everything in life is positioning, positioning, positioning… The market has seen quite the bloodbath this Monday before the opening; stories of carry trade unwinds, panda bears, Sahm’s rule, recessions, FED policy mistakes, and trying to buy insurance on your burning
The tale of Goldilocks getting eaten by the bears Read More »
Posting this for completeness but please don’t bother reading “Esteemed Former Colleague”: I generally agree on the most likely path for equities. At nearly 27x PE, SPX is borderline unprecedented territory – seen really only in 1998/1999 and 2021. 2021 was interrupted by fed rate hike of course. Will ascent this time be interrupted by
The email chain that started it all [pt 2] Read More »
Posting this for completeness but please don’t bother reading This is one of the foundational email chain between myself and a former colleague to my decision to start this publication. This person was of great influence on my thinking and approach to investing and had much more to teach me before I embarked on a
The email chain that started it all Read More »
