Chronological Research Archive
Fed and China go big or go home
Fed goes for 50bps and China gives you money to buy domestic stonks… So what’s the trade a week later? Rates trades and hedges set up from the Fed’s first…
STIR butterflies from Yield curve flip flops
How should we think of our rates hedges to lazy equity longs now? Hopefully, there will be something interesting to chew on regarding rates hedging an equity long book using STIR futures…
Hysteria from Hysteresis and Path Dependence – Clearinghouses
Recent economic numbers provided confirmation bias to the goldilocks cycle of continued but slowing growth, as laid out in the previous note (attached). Together with the momentum of balance sheet…
What is the likely path for growth now? – What is my credit card limit?
How has Yellen’s shopping been doing? We have covered some monetary theory in the prior post to understand the net easing the economy has effectively seen in a period of…
What is the likely path for growth now? A Reverse Repo Story
Show me the Money! The great growth scare of 2024 that lasted a long week has been averted thanks to 7000 brave souls who are enjoying a life with solar…
The tale of Goldilocks getting eaten by the bears
I have been to many stakings- you have to know where to stand! You know, everything in life is positioning, positioning, positioning… The market has seen quite the bloodbath this…
The email chain that started it all [pt 2]
Posting this for completeness but please don’t bother reading “Esteemed Former Colleague”: I generally agree on the most likely path for equities. At nearly 27x PE, SPX is borderline unprecedented…
The email chain that started it all
Posting this for completeness but please don’t bother reading This is one of the foundational email chain between myself and a former colleague to my decision to start this publication….