Welcome to Tetractys Research
Tetractys Research is where macro meets equity investing, with a touch of probability theory, some stochastic volatility, and the occasional mispriced asset. This isn’t just a list of greatest hits—it’s a living catalog of lessons from both Gaussian gains and fat-tailed losses, a tool for refining frameworks as markets mutate.
Clarity is key: if you can’t explain it, you don’t understand it. These notes help me iterate my investment theses, much like a Newton-Raphson method searching for convergence. Whether you’re here for actionable insights, fresh perspectives, or to stress-test a few ideas of your own, this is the lattice behind my conviction-driven decisions.
My Investment Philosophy
At its core, my process blends macro insights with equity-focused strategies, much like combining a Lagrange multiplier with a sharp eye on the constraints. The macro environment is the first filter for deciding when and where to deploy capital—after all, you don’t want to back-test yourself into believing every Monte Carlo simulation leads to riches.
A great company can decay faster than an exponential discount factor in the wrong macro environment, while even a subpar business might flourish under a favorable drift. My goal is to build trades where the broader context amplifies the equity theme, avoiding the classic trap of being “right” on the micro but “wrong” on the macro. I structure trades as baskets of companies, treating industries as vectors and seeking to maximize their alpha coefficients over idiosyncratic error terms, while accounting for the fact that market dynamics are rarely ergodic.
When conditions align, I layer equity positions with macro trades—commodities, rates, FX, or derivatives—approaching the market as a dynamic programming problem: optimizing each step in a multi-stage process to maximize returns under uncertainty. If a trade demonstrates the potential upside is convex enough to break my models, I’m in—life’s too short for linear payoffs and will lean in with conviction.
Why Charge for Some Content?
Research and writing take time, and rigorous dives into financial modeling aren’t fueled by free coffee or a series of Martingale wagers. Supporting this work allows me to iterate more robust models, refine insights, and produce content that’s both theoretically sound and practically actionable.
Here’s how it’s structured:
Free Content: Actionable macro frameworks, thematic trade ideas, and strategies designed to optimize your portfolio’s trajectory—insights with a solid first-order impact.
Paid Content: For the cost of a nice coffee (or a few basis points of slippage), subscribers gain access to detailed models, portfolio snapshots, and updates to evolving themes—the tools to transform convex ideas into executable trades.
Free material remains accessible and valuable, but paid subscribers unlock deeper layers—call it the second derivative of insights—designed to fine-tune your market edge. Sharing ideas not only sharpens my own thinking but also keeps me accountable; after all, reputation is the original value-at-risk.
If this aligns with your payoff function, join me as we navigate the shifting probability landscape—one macro thesis, one convex opportunity at a time.
Who Am I?
I traded the multi-monitor, Bloomberg-terminal life for a simpler setup: a laptop, a backpack, and the occasional spot with reliable Wi-Fi. With a master’s in Mathematics and years spent pricing assets, analyzing data, structuring complex capital solutions, and running on-the-job science experiments in search of significant efficiency gains, I’ve learned that the same principles driving markets—maximize utility, manage variance, and calibrate for asymmetry—apply just as well to life.
If I can identify mispriced assets (or at least pretend to), why not extend that mindset to geographies? Now I explore places where the utility function feels optimized, the cultural arbitrage is compelling, and the Sharpe ratio of lifestyle choices outpaces the market average. Occasionally, I write about these places—their quirks, economies, and inefficiencies—blending insights from spreadsheets with observations from the streets.
Investment, for me, is about more than compounding capital—it’s about compounding time and experiences, leveraging the most finite resource of all. If that resonates with you, let’s dive in—because whether it’s markets or life, the best opportunities are often slightly off the efficient frontier.
