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Fed’s Holiday Playbook
A tactical guide to the Fed’s holiday playbook: Santa’s cuts, Krampus pauses, and bonds trying to avoid the inflation ghost lurking by the fire.
Dec 18
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Fed’s Holiday Playbook
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November 2024
The Bessent and Lighthizer Dilemma
The beginnings of an elegant pair trade set-up.
Nov 25
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The Bessent and Lighthizer Dilemma
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Post-Election Implications and Trade Sketches
Here we go again, but not quite the same...
Nov 11
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Post-Election Implications and Trade Sketches
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Thematic Equities: Star Wars – A New Hope
We recently had two important reminders of the state of our world.
Nov 2
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Thematic Equities: Star Wars – A New Hope
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October 2024
Quick rates update: one month anniversary
Model for the long end of rates
Oct 21
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Quick rates update: one month anniversary
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The macro setup for equities
In the prior research report, we framed the paths for U.S.
Oct 13
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The macro setup for equities
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Quick China stimulus update
I formally issue an errata, renaming the prior research piece to: Fed goes big and China goes home.
Oct 8
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Quick China stimulus update
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Quick rates update post NFP
The 2% target is now the lower bound
Oct 7
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Quick rates update post NFP
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September 2024
Fed and China go big or go home
Fed goes for 50bps and China gives you money to buy domestic stonks… So what’s the trade a week later?
Sep 29
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Fed and China go big or go home
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STIR butterflies from Yield curve flip flops
How should we think of our rates hedges to lazy equity longs now?
Sep 10
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STIR butterflies from Yield curve flip flops
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August 2024
Hysteria from Hysteresis and Path Dependence – Clearinghouses
Goldilocks sounds all well and nice, however, there is no alpha to generate if there is no uncertainty.
Aug 28
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Hysteria from Hysteresis and Path Dependence – Clearinghouses
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What is the likely path for growth now? – What is my credit card limit?
How has Yellen’s shopping been doing?
Aug 16
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What is the likely path for growth now? – What is my credit card limit?
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